Mexico ended 2025 with a stronger quarter than first reported, after revised data raised both the late-year GDP reading and the full-year total. The update does not change the broader slowdown story, but it shows more momentum than the preliminary estimate suggested. A separate December activity report also pointed to a firmer finish, with growth across all three major sectors. Together, the releases give a clearer picture of how the economy entered 2026 and why this update drew attention.
A stronger finish than the preliminary estimate
Mexico’s economy expanded 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to INEGI’s final quarterly GDP release published Monday. The result was stronger than the 0.8% preliminary estimate issued in late January. It also came in above the economist’s expectations cited in market surveys. On an annual basis, fourth-quarter GDP was 1.8% higher than the same quarter of 2024. INEGI’s revised data also lifted the full-year 2025 growth rate to 0.8%, up from the earlier 0.7% estimate. That revision matters because it changes the way Mexico is read at the end of the year. The updated figures show a firmer finish after a slower stretch in 2025. The final release is also the more complete benchmark for comparing sectors and planning around the 2026 outlook. It provides a more consistent baseline for tracking whether growth accelerates or slows this year. Mexico still posted modest annual growth, but the end-of-year performance was stronger than first reported.
What moved the Q4 revision
The key revision came from primary activities, which include agriculture, livestock, fishing, and related sectors. Those activities still contracted in the quarter, but the decline was smaller than first estimated. INEGI’s final release showed a 1.4% quarterly drop, replacing the earlier 2.7% estimate. That change helped lift the headline GDP figure. At the same time, the larger parts of the economy held steady. Secondary activities, which include manufacturing and construction, grew 0.9% from the prior quarter. Tertiary activities, which include services, also rose 0.9%. Because services and industry make up most of national output, their gains offset the weaker performance of the primary sector and kept the quarter positive. The annual breakdown in the same release showed services up 2.1% and secondary activities up 0.3% for the quarter. Primary activities were 7.8% higher than a year earlier. The picture is uneven, but it points to continued growth rather than a broad late-year pullback.
What the December data adds to the picture
The same day, INEGI released its December IGAE report, which offers a monthly view of economic activity. The indicator rose 0.4% from November and 2.4% from a year earlier, using seasonally adjusted figures. INEGI also reported monthly growth across all three major sectors. Primary activities rose 6.5%, while secondary and tertiary activities each increased 0.2%. That monthly report does not replace quarterly GDP, and INEGI notes that its growth rate can differ from GDP. Still, it supports the view that 2025 ended with better momentum than many expected. For expats and foreign residents, this data can shape expectations for jobs, services, and local business demand. It also feeds into decisions by companies and policymakers as 2026 begins. Analysts remain cautious on the year ahead, with trade uncertainty still a factor. So the main takeaway is balance, not celebration: modest annual growth, but a stronger finish than the first estimate showed.
