Mexico closed 2025 with a headline GDP gain, but the number is not the one policymakers wanted. Finance officials point to a weak industrial year and a persistent issue inside Mexico’s export machine: too much of each export peso still comes from imported inputs. The government’s Plan México is now framed as a way to lift growth by building deeper local supply chains. What changes next will matter for jobs, prices, and investment decisions that many residents feel day to day.
A 0.8% year that still left policy makers dissatisfied
Mexico’s economy expanded 0.8% in 2025 versus the prior year, based on the latest national accounts. The final quarter was better. Output rose 0.9% from the previous quarter, and it was 1.8% higher than a year earlier. Those late gains did not change the broader picture. The Finance Ministry said the full-year result fell short of what Mexico needs, even though it avoided earlier fears of a recession. The comments came during a public presentation tied to new financing and innovation efforts. The government’s own range had anticipated growth between 0.5% and 1.5%, which the final figure fits. GDP is a broad measure, but it shapes tax revenue, hiring, and confidence. Officials now argue that the central task is not only to grow. They also want to change how growth is produced. That is where Plan México comes in. It is framed as an industrial strategy to raise domestic production inside export supply chains.
Industry mattered most, and it underperformed
The national accounts show why the ministry is focused on the production base. In annual terms, industrial activity fell 1.1% in 2025, while services rose 1.5% and primary activities increased 4.0%. “Industry” here includes manufacturing, construction, utilities, and mining. Mexico’s export model is built around factories that feed the U.S. market. A weak industrial year can pull down the whole economy even when services continue to grow. Finance officials stressed that Mexico has continued to demonstrate its capacity as the United States’ top trading partner. The country buys and sells at scale. The problem is that trade strength did not translate into faster domestic growth. Several industrial branches stayed under pressure throughout the year. Mining was a key drag, and some manufacturing categories also slipped. The result is familiar: solid export volumes, but slower momentum in output and paychecks at home. That matters for wages, because factories anchor supplier networks across many states.
The export value gap is the policy target
A key idea behind Plan México is to raise the domestic value added in what Mexico exports. The Finance Ministry said that, on average, only about 51 cents of each export dollar reflects value created inside Mexico. The rest comes from imported intermediate goods that are assembled and re-exported. Officials contrasted that with parts of Southeast Asia, where a higher share of export value is produced locally. The ministry’s stated goal is to lift Mexico’s domestic share to roughly 61 cents per export dollar over time. The aim is not to stop importing. It is to build more local suppliers for parts, chemicals, electronics, and services that exporters need. If more inputs are made locally, more paychecks and contracts stay in Mexico. That can also reduce exposure to supply disruptions that hit imported components. For households, it can influence job stability and wage growth in manufacturing corridors. For consumers, it can affect prices when the peso moves.
What to watch in 2026 if you live and work in Mexico
For 2026, the federal economic package projects faster growth, ranging from 1.8% to 2.8%. Reaching that would require more than a better quarter. It would require new investment and faster spillovers from exporters to local suppliers. It would also require a steadier external backdrop. Trade policy uncertainty remains a major variable. The USMCA review is due in 2026, and tariff changes can quickly alter sourcing decisions. In the near term, many residents will feel the macro story through familiar channels. Watch hiring in manufacturing hubs and in construction. Watch service demand in major cities and tourist zones. Inflation and the peso also matter for rent, groceries, and travel costs. The government’s message is that raising local content can lift potential growth without losing export competitiveness. The next test is execution. Projects, incentives, and procurement rules must change purchasing decisions within large supply chains. Policy follow-through will also shape infrastructure timelines and the pace of new factory openings.
With information from La Jornada, INEGI, SHCP Comunicado, Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2026, Plan México
